Correlation Analysis
The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock vs Costco Wholesale Corp
CG vs COST
+0.556
Moderate positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
↗CG
Carlyle Group is one of the world's largest alternative-asset managers, with $476.9 billion in total AUM, including $336.8 billion in fee-earning AUM, at the end of 2025. The company has three core business segments: global private equity, which includes its private equity, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources offerings (with $163.6 billion in total AUM and $101.4 billion in fee-earning AUM), global credit ($211.3 billion/$169.5 billion), and investment/fund solutions, known as Carlyle AlphInvest ($101.0 billion/$65.9 billion). The firm primarily serves institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. Carlyle operates through 29 offices across five continents, serving more than 3,100 active carry fund investors from 87 countries.
Market cap 16.9B · 2,500 employees
Costco Wholesale Corp
↗COST
Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.
Market cap 451.9B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
CG leads COST by 3 days
CG tends to move before COST.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.556 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.307
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.745
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.634
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
30.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
60.2%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.516, 0.593]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
CG
Market cap 16.9B · 2,500 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST
Market cap 451.9B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
11.6435
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
177.1271
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
CG
The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
Highest
+0.756
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.000
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM · 1,254 data points
Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-cg-vs-stock-cost-daily