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Correlation Analysis

Casey's General Stores Inc vs Costco Wholesale Corp

CASY vs COST

+0.895

Very strong positive

When one moves up, the other tends to follow.

CASY logo

Casey's General Stores Inc

CASY

Casey's General Stores Inc serves as convenience store chain with its 2,900 locations, positioned in the Midwest United States. About half of Casey's stores are located in rural towns with populations under 5,000. While fueling stations serve as a key traffic driver, about two-thirds of the company's gross profit stems from in-store sales of grocery items, prepared meals, and general merchandise. Casey's owns more than 90% of its stores and operates the majority of its warehousing and distribution processes internally.

Market cap 27.6B · 49,272 employees

COST logo

Costco Wholesale Corp

COST

Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.

Market cap 451.9B

Apr 9, 2021 — Apr 7, 2026Daily1,254 data pointsStockStockConsumer

Time Series

Relative Performance

Green: CASYGray: COST36 of 1,254 points (sampled)

Who Moves First

CASY leads COST by 4 days

CASY tends to move before COST.

After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.895 (they moved in the same direction).

Do They Crash Together?

Correlation by Market Regime

How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.

Both Rising

+0.374

14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose

Both Falling

N/A

4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell

Diverging

-0.537

17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart

R-Squared

80.0%

Share of variance in one series explained by the other.

Trend Agreement

61.8%

How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.

Overlap Quality

1,254

Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.

Significance

p < 0.001

95% CI: [0.883, 0.905]

Scatter

XY Regression

1382003004005006007007873064006008001,0001,134Casey's General Stores IncCostco Wholesale CorpData pointsFit (r = 0.895)

Pipeline

Data quality details

Pipeline Summary

1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.

Raw input

1,254

1,254

Normalized

1,254

1,254

Prepared

1,254

1,254

Aligned

1,254

1,254

Invalid removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Duplicates removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Alignment drops

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Series A

CASY logo

Casey's General Stores Inc

CASY

Market cap 27.6B · 49,272 employees

Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared

Series B

COST logo

Costco Wholesale Corp

COST

Market cap 451.9B

Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared

Sign agreement

100.0%

How often both values share the same sign.

Zero crossings

18

Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.

Slope

1.3900

Linear regression slope.

Intercept

235.3829

Linear regression intercept.

Related Extremes

Highest and Lowest Correlated

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