Correlation Analysis
Ball Corporation vs Costco Wholesale Corp
BALL vs COST
-0.017
Near-zero inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Ball Corporation
↗BALL
Ball is the world's largest metal can manufacturer with market share over 30% in its three main regions (North America, Europe, and South America). The company is focused on increasing capacity amid a wave of new developed-market demand, while also investing in faster-growing emerging-market economies. Ball spun-off its glass jar business in 1993 and is now owned by Newell. The company reports three segments-beverage packaging, North and Central America (48% of 2025 revenue), beverage packaging, EMEA (30%), beverage packaging, South America (16%)-and it generated $13 billion in revenue in 2025.
Market cap 15.9B · 16,000 employees
Costco Wholesale Corp
↗COST
Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.
Market cap 451.9B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
COST leads BALL by 5 days
COST tends to move before BALL.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.020 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.018
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.034
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.619
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
0.0%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
59.0%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
980
Deep shared window — 980 usable pairs.
Significance
n.s.
95% CI: [-0.080, 0.045]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
980 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
980
1,254
Normalized
980
1,254
Prepared
980
1,254
Aligned
980
980
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
274
A: 0 / B: 274
Series A
Ball Corporation
BALL
Market cap 15.9B · 16,000 employees
Stock · 980 raw → 980 prepared
Series B
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST
Market cap 451.9B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5282
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
770.3254
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
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