Correlation Analysis
Apple Inc. vs Circle Internet Group, Inc.
AAPL vs CRCL
-0.775
Strong inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Apple Inc.
↗AAPL
Apple is among the largest companies in the world, with a broad portfolio of hardware and software products targeted at consumers and businesses. Apple's iPhone makes up a majority of the firm sales, and Apple's other products like Mac, iPad, and Watch are designed around the iPhone as the focal point of an expansive software ecosystem. Apple has progressively worked to add new applications, like streaming video, subscription bundles, and augmented reality. The firm designs its own software and semiconductors while working with subcontractors like Foxconn and TSMC to build its products and chips. Slightly less than half of Apple's sales come directly through its flagship stores, with a majority of sales coming indirectly through partnerships and distribution.
Market cap 3.8T
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
↗CRCL
Circle Internet Group Inc is a financial technology firm engaged in digital currencies and public blockchains for payments, commerce, and financial applications. The company's platform is a full-stack, internet financial platform business, organized around three pillars: Arc Blockchain and Developer Infrastructure, Circle Digital Assets and Services, and Circle Applications.
Market cap 22.8B · 1,100 employees
AI Analysis
The strong negative correlation between Apple Inc. and Circle Internet Group suggests that when Apple's stock price rises, Circle's tends to fall, and vice versa. This inverse relationship, with a notable lead of six trading days for Apple, indicates that investor sentiment or market dynamics affecting Apple could significantly impact Circle's valuation shortly after. However, while the correlation is statistically significant, it's important to consider that correlation does not imply causation; external factors may be influencing both stocks, and relying solely on this relationship for investment decisions could be risky.
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
AAPL leads CRCL by 6 days
AAPL tends to move before CRCL.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.839 (they moved in opposite directions).
Stability
Rolling Correlation
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.117
55 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.014
51 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.433
103 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
60.1%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
51.0%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
210
Usable shared window — 210 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.824, -0.715]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
210 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
210
Normalized
1,254
210
Prepared
1,254
210
Aligned
210
210
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,044
A: 1044 / B: 0
Series A
Apple Inc.
AAPL
Market cap 3.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
CRCL
Market cap 22.8B · 1,100 employees
Stock · 210 raw → 210 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.3855
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
461.9855
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
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