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Correlate

Correlation Analysis

Alcoa Corporation vs Costco Wholesale Corp

AA vs COST

-0.213

Light inverse

When one moves up, the other tends to move down.

AA logo

Alcoa Corporation

AA

Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company whose operations include bauxite mining, alumina refining, and manufacturing primary aluminum. It is one of the world's largest bauxite miners and alumina refiners by production volume, but sits outside the top-10 aluminum producers, a list dominated by Chinese companies. Profits are closely tied to prevailing commodity prices along the aluminum supply chain.Alcoa was the first mass producer of aluminum, launching the world-changing Hall-Heroult smelting process in the 1880s, making aluminum affordable. It listed as a public company in 1925. In 2016, Alcoa spun off its automotive and aerospace metal parts segment to focus on mining, smelting, and refining. It bought the 40% unowned balance of AWAC in mid-2024.

Market cap 18.7B · 14,900 employees

COST logo

Costco Wholesale Corp

COST

Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.

Market cap 451.9B

Apr 9, 2021 — Apr 7, 2026Daily1,254 data pointsStockStockConsumer

Time Series

Relative Performance

Green: AAGray: COST36 of 1,254 points (sampled)

Who Moves First

AA leads COST by 6 days

AA tends to move before COST.

After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.236 (they moved in opposite directions).

Do They Crash Together?

Correlation by Market Regime

How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.

Both Rising

-0.252

11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose

Both Falling

+0.595

5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell

Diverging

-0.660

19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart

R-Squared

4.6%

Share of variance in one series explained by the other.

Trend Agreement

54.1%

How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.

Overlap Quality

1,254

Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.

Significance

p < 0.001

95% CI: [-0.266, -0.160]

Scatter

XY Regression

19.8203040506070809092.83064006008001,0001,134Alcoa CorporationCostco Wholesale CorpData pointsFit (r = -0.213)

Pipeline

Data quality details

Pipeline Summary

1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.

Raw input

1,254

1,254

Normalized

1,254

1,254

Prepared

1,254

1,254

Aligned

1,254

1,254

Invalid removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Duplicates removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Alignment drops

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Series A

AA logo

Alcoa Corporation

AA

Market cap 18.7B · 14,900 employees

Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared

Series B

COST logo

Costco Wholesale Corp

COST

Market cap 451.9B

Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared

Sign agreement

100.0%

How often both values share the same sign.

Zero crossings

5

Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.

Slope

-3.4163

Linear regression slope.

Intercept

825.7635

Linear regression intercept.

Related Extremes

Highest and Lowest Correlated

Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-aa-vs-stock-cost-daily