Correlation Analysis
International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for United Kingdom vs International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Imports: Commodities for United Kingdom
XTEXVA01GBM667S vs XTIMVA01GBM667S
+0.986
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between Series A and Series B indicates that they tend to move together closely over time, suggesting that changes in one are likely to be mirrored in the other. This alignment is particularly useful for investors and economists, as a high degree of trend agreement and synchronization can inform decision-making based on these indicators. However, while the lead/lag relationship shows they are in sync, it’s essential to remain cautious about potential external factors that may influence both series and to consider that correlation does not imply causation.
Timing Offset
in sync
XTEXVA01GBM667S and XTIMVA01GBM667S tend to move at the same time.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.977 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
95.5%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
80.0%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
828
Deep shared window — 828 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.956, 0.989] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
828 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
828
828
Normalized
828
828
Prepared
828
828
Aligned
828
828
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
XTEXVA01GBM667S
International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for United Kingdom
FRED · 828 raw → 828 prepared
Series B
XTIMVA01GBM667S
International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Imports: Commodities for United Kingdom
FRED · 828 raw → 828 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.4356
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1637711812.6573
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-xtexva01gbm667s-vs-fred-xtimva01gbm667s-daily-20260406-ndyfgy