Correlation Analysis
Real Gross Domestic Product for Republic of Korea vs International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for Korea
NGDPRSAXDCKRQ vs XTEXVA01KRM667S
+0.974
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between Series A and Series B suggests that they move together closely over time, indicating that changes in one are likely to reflect changes in the other, which can be useful for predicting economic trends. Notably, Series A tends to lead Series B by four periods, meaning investors should be aware that shifts in Series A are likely to signal subsequent movements in Series B. However, while this relationship is robust, it’s important to consider that correlation does not imply causation, and external factors could influence both series independently.
Timing Offset
x leads y by 4 periods
NGDPRSAXDCKRQ tends to move before XTEXVA01KRM667S.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.986 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
95.6%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
91.4%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
264
Robust shared window — 264 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.956, 0.989] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
264 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
264
829
Normalized
264
829
Prepared
264
829
Aligned
264
264
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
565
A: 0 / B: 565
Series A
NGDPRSAXDCKRQ
Real Gross Domestic Product for Republic of Korea
FRED · 264 raw → 264 prepared
Series B
XTEXVA01KRM667S
International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for Korea
FRED · 829 raw → 829 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
103.3434
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-4507972676.0599
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-ngdprsaxdckrq-vs-fred-xtexva01krm667s-daily-20260406-r9v0u8