CorrlensCorrlens
Correlate

Correlation Analysis

Real Gross Domestic Product for Republic of Korea vs International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for Korea

NGDPRSAXDCKRQ vs XTEXVA01KRM667S

+0.974

Very strong positive

When one moves up, the other tends to follow.

Jan 1, 1960 — Oct 1, 2025Daily264 observationsFREDFRED

AI Analysis

The strong correlation between Series A and Series B suggests that they move together closely over time, indicating that changes in one are likely to reflect changes in the other, which can be useful for predicting economic trends. Notably, Series A tends to lead Series B by four periods, meaning investors should be aware that shifts in Series A are likely to signal subsequent movements in Series B. However, while this relationship is robust, it’s important to consider that correlation does not imply causation, and external factors could influence both series independently.

Timing Offset

x leads y by 4 periods

NGDPRSAXDCKRQ tends to move before XTEXVA01KRM667S.

-6-5-4-3-2-10+1+2+3+4+5+6

Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.

Peak correlation at offset: +0.986 (13 lags scanned)

R-Squared

95.6%

Share of variance in one series explained by the other.

Trend Agreement

91.4%

How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.

Overlap Quality

264

Robust shared window — 264 usable pairs.

Significance

p < 0.001

95% CI: [0.956, 0.989] (approximate)

Time Series

Rebased to 100

Green: NGDPRSAXDCKRQGray: XTEXVA01KRM667S36 of 264 points (sampled)

Scatter

XY Regression

-38,480,4920100,000,000200,000,000300,000,000400,000,000500,000,000600,000,000628,673,092-4,808,122,173010,000,000,00020,000,000,00030,000,000,00040,000,000,00050,000,000,00060,000,000,00064,929,436,828Real Gross Domestic Product for Republic of KoreaInternational Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for KoreaData pointsFit (r = 0.974)

Pipeline

Data quality details

Pipeline Summary

264 paired observations survived the daily window.

Raw input

264

829

Normalized

264

829

Prepared

264

829

Aligned

264

264

Invalid removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Duplicates removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Alignment drops

565

A: 0 / B: 565

Series A

NGDPRSAXDCKRQ

Real Gross Domestic Product for Republic of Korea

FRED · 264 raw → 264 prepared

Series B

XTEXVA01KRM667S

International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for Korea

FRED · 829 raw → 829 prepared

Sign agreement

100.0%

How often both values share the same sign.

Zero crossings

1

Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.

Slope

103.3434

Linear regression slope.

Intercept

-4507972676.0599

Linear regression intercept.

Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-ngdprsaxdckrq-vs-fred-xtexva01krm667s-daily-20260406-r9v0u8