Correlation Analysis
Real Gross Domestic Product for Canada vs Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma
NGDPRSAXDCCAQ vs MCOILWTICO
+0.755
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between Series A (NGDPRSAXDCCAQ) and Series B (MCOILWTICO) suggests that changes in economic conditions reflected by Series A are closely related to fluctuations in oil prices, with oil prices often leading these changes by one period. This timing can be crucial for investors, as it indicates that shifts in oil prices may predict economic trends, allowing for more informed decision-making. However, while the correlation is significant, it is essential to consider that it does not imply causation, and external factors could influence both series, potentially distorting the relationship.
Timing Offset
y leads x by 1 period
MCOILWTICO tends to move before NGDPRSAXDCCAQ.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.786 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
60.7%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
54.3%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
160
Usable shared window — 160 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.606, 0.882] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
160 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
260
483
Normalized
260
483
Prepared
260
483
Aligned
160
160
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
423
A: 100 / B: 323
Series A
NGDPRSAXDCCAQ
Real Gross Domestic Product for Canada
FRED · 260 raw → 260 prepared
Series B
MCOILWTICO
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma
FRED · 483 raw → 483 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0002
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-37.7049
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-ngdprsaxdccaq-vs-fred-mcoilwtico-daily-20260406-hrjpa8