Correlation Analysis
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma vs Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for United Kingdom
MCOILWTICO vs GBRCPIALLMINMEI
+0.716
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong positive correlation between crude oil prices (Series A) and the UK Consumer Price Index (Series B) suggests that, as oil prices rise, consumer prices tend to follow suit, indicating a significant relationship between energy costs and overall inflation. Notably, oil prices lead consumer price changes by one period, meaning fluctuations in oil prices can be considered an early indicator of future inflation trends. However, while the correlation is substantial, it is important to recognize that it explains less than half of the variability in consumer prices, suggesting other factors also significantly influence inflation.
Timing Offset
x leads y by 1 period
MCOILWTICO tends to move before GBRCPIALLMINMEI.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.681 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
45.8%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
64.7%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
471
Robust shared window — 471 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.447, 0.822] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
471 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
483
843
Normalized
483
843
Prepared
483
843
Aligned
471
471
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
384
A: 12 / B: 372
Series A
MCOILWTICO
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma
FRED · 483 raw → 483 prepared
Series B
GBRCPIALLMINMEI
Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for United Kingdom
FRED · 843 raw → 843 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5513
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
57.7637
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-mcoilwtico-vs-fred-gbrcpiallminmei-daily-20260406-rcrojp