Correlation Analysis
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma vs Consumer Price Index: All Items: City: Total for Canada
MCOILWTICO vs CPALCY01CAM661N
+0.737
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between oil prices (MCOILWTICO) and Canadian consumer prices (CPALCY01CAM661N) suggests that fluctuations in oil prices significantly influence consumer inflation in Canada, with over half of the observed movements in these series occurring in the same direction. The fact that they move in sync, without substantial lead or lag, indicates that changes in oil prices can predict shifts in consumer prices almost in real-time, making it vital for investors and policymakers to monitor oil market trends closely. However, while the correlation is notable, it’s essential to consider external factors that could affect consumer prices independently, such as currency fluctuations and changes in demand for goods and services.
Timing Offset
in sync
MCOILWTICO and CPALCY01CAM661N tend to move at the same time.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.732 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
53.5%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
54.3%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
455
Robust shared window — 455 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.531, 0.855] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
455 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
483
755
Normalized
483
755
Prepared
483
755
Aligned
455
455
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
328
A: 28 / B: 300
Series A
MCOILWTICO
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma
FRED · 483 raw → 483 prepared
Series B
CPALCY01CAM661N
Consumer Price Index: All Items: City: Total for Canada
FRED · 755 raw → 755 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4586
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
63.2794
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-mcoilwtico-vs-fred-cpalcy01cam661n-daily-20260406-9gz3w7