Correlation Analysis
M2 vs Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average
M2SL vs CPIAUCSL
+0.922
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between M2SL (a measure of the money supply) and CPIAUCSL (the consumer price index) suggests that increases in the money supply are closely associated with rising consumer prices, indicating inflationary pressures. With M2SL leading CPIAUCSL by six periods, this timing is crucial for investors and policymakers, as it signals that changes in the money supply can precede shifts in inflation, allowing for proactive adjustments. However, while the correlation is robust, it’s important to consider other factors that may influence inflation, such as supply chain issues and fiscal policy, which can affect the relationship.
Timing Offset
x leads y by 6 periods
M2SL tends to move before CPIAUCSL.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.951 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
85.6%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
97.1%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
805
Deep shared window — 805 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.857, 0.961] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
805 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
806
949
Normalized
806
949
Prepared
806
949
Aligned
805
805
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
145
A: 1 / B: 144
Series A
M2SL
M2
FRED · 806 raw → 806 prepared
Series B
CPIAUCSL
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average
FRED · 949 raw → 949 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0128
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
67.6471
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-m2sl-vs-fred-cpiaucsl-daily-20260406-as3kzv