Correlation Analysis
Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada vs Consumer Price Index: All Items: City: Total for Canada
LRUNTTTTCAM156S vs CPALCY01CAM661N
+0.222
Light positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The correlation between Series A (long-term unemployment rate) and Series B (consumer price index) suggests a weak relationship, with only 40% of the time both series move in the same direction. While there is a noted lead of six periods, indicating that changes in unemployment can precede shifts in consumer prices, the overall predictive power is limited, as evidenced by a low R-squared value. Investors should exercise caution; while observing trends in unemployment may provide some insights into future inflation, the connection is not strong enough to rely on for significant investment decisions.
Timing Offset
x leads y by 6 periods
LRUNTTTTCAM156S tends to move before CPALCY01CAM661N.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.428 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
7.2%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
40.0%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
755
Deep shared window — 755 usable pairs.
Significance
n.s.
95% CI: [-0.067, 0.548] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
755 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
853
755
Normalized
853
755
Prepared
853
755
Aligned
755
755
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
98
A: 98 / B: 0
Series A
LRUNTTTTCAM156S
Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada
FRED · 853 raw → 853 prepared
Series B
CPALCY01CAM661N
Consumer Price Index: All Items: City: Total for Canada
FRED · 755 raw → 755 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.9907
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
30.9211
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-lrunttttcam156s-vs-fred-cpalcy01cam661n-daily-20260406-p133iu