Correlation Analysis
Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United Kingdom vs Federal Funds Effective Rate
IRLTLT01GBM156N vs FEDFUNDS
+0.840
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between long-term interest rates (Series A) and the federal funds rate (Series B) suggests that movements in the federal funds rate significantly influence long-term rates, a relationship that can impact borrowing costs and investment decisions. Since the two series generally move together and are in sync, changes in policy rates can provide valuable insights for predicting shifts in long-term interest rates. However, it's essential to consider that while this correlation is robust, it does not imply causation, and external economic factors may also play a significant role in shaping these trends.
Timing Offset
in sync
IRLTLT01GBM156N and FEDFUNDS tend to move at the same time.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.836 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
69.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
65.7%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
794
Deep shared window — 794 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.700, 0.914] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
794 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
794
861
Normalized
794
861
Prepared
794
861
Aligned
794
794
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
67
A: 0 / B: 67
Series A
IRLTLT01GBM156N
Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United Kingdom
FRED · 794 raw → 794 prepared
Series B
FEDFUNDS
Federal Funds Effective Rate
FRED · 861 raw → 861 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
14
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7268
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.3066
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-irltlt01gbm156n-vs-fred-fedfunds-daily-20260406-3dhamp