Correlation Analysis
Industrial Production: Total Index vs International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for Canada
INDPRO vs XTEXVA01CAM667S
+0.938
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between industrial production (INDPRO) and the exports of goods and services (XTEXVA01CAM667S) suggests that as industrial output increases, exports tend to rise as well, indicating a robust link between domestic production capacity and global demand. Notably, industrial production leads export growth by about four periods, which implies that investors should monitor production trends as a precursor to changes in export activity. However, this relationship, while significant, should be interpreted with caution due to potential external factors influencing both series over time, such as global economic conditions or trade policies.
Timing Offset
x leads y by 4 periods
INDPRO tends to move before XTEXVA01CAM667S.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.974 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
88.3%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
76.5%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
828
Deep shared window — 828 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.884, 0.969] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
828 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,286
828
Normalized
1,286
828
Prepared
1,286
828
Aligned
828
828
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
458
A: 458 / B: 0
Series A
INDPRO
Industrial Production: Total Index
FRED · 1,286 raw → 1,286 prepared
Series B
XTEXVA01CAM667S
International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for Canada
FRED · 828 raw → 828 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
528940439.9783
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-18172402750.5588
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-indpro-vs-fred-xtexva01cam667s-daily-20260406-a1ir5h