Correlation Analysis
Industrial Production: Total Index vs Unemployment Rate
INDPRO vs UNRATE
+0.067
Weak positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The weak correlation between industrial production (INDPRO) and the unemployment rate (UNRATE) suggests that changes in production levels have only a minor relationship with employment trends over the analyzed period. Although there is a slight tendency for unemployment to lead industrial production by about six months, the overall low alignment indicates that other factors likely drive these economic indicators independently. Investors should be cautious in using this correlation for predictive purposes, as the limited connection means that relying solely on one to forecast the other could lead to misleading conclusions.
Timing Offset
y leads x by 6 periods
UNRATE tends to move before INDPRO.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.360 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
0.1%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
40.0%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
937
Deep shared window — 937 usable pairs.
Significance
n.s.
95% CI: [-0.300, 0.357] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
937 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,286
938
Normalized
1,286
938
Prepared
1,286
938
Aligned
937
937
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
350
A: 349 / B: 1
Series A
INDPRO
Industrial Production: Total Index
FRED · 1,286 raw → 1,286 prepared
Series B
UNRATE
Unemployment Rate
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0015
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.4833
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-indpro-vs-fred-unrate-daily-20260406-rj0bc7