Correlation Analysis
New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units vs 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States
HOUST vs MORTGAGE30US
+0.183
Weak positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The analysis shows a weak positive correlation between housing starts (HOUST) and 30-year fixed mortgage rates (MORTGAGE30US), indicating that, while there is some relationship, it is not strong enough to suggest that changes in mortgage rates significantly drive housing starts. Notably, mortgage rates tend to lead housing starts by about three weeks, suggesting that shifts in borrowing costs might influence construction activity shortly thereafter. However, with only 28.6% of periods moving in the same direction and low predictive power, investors should approach this relationship cautiously and consider other economic factors that may also impact housing starts.
Timing Offset
x leads y by 3 periods
HOUST tends to move before MORTGAGE30US.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.453 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
2.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
28.6%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
658
Robust shared window — 658 usable pairs.
Significance
n.s.
95% CI: [-0.167, 0.473] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
658 paired observations survived the weekly window.
Raw input
805
2,871
Normalized
805
2,871
Prepared
805
2,871
Aligned
658
658
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,360
A: 147 / B: 2213
Series A
HOUST
New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units
FRED · 805 raw → 805 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States
FRED · 2,871 raw → 2,871 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0013
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.7913
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-houst-vs-fred-mortgage30us-weekly-20260406-6d1nag