Correlation Analysis
Gross Domestic Product vs Unemployment Rate
GDP vs UNRATE
-0.028
Near-zero inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
AI Analysis
The correlation between GDP and the unemployment rate is very weak, indicating that changes in GDP do not consistently predict movements in unemployment. While there is a slight tendency for unemployment to lead GDP changes by about six months, this relationship is not strong enough to rely on for investment decisions. Caution is warranted, as the low R-squared value suggests that other factors significantly influence both series, and the trend alignment is only moderately consistent.
Timing Offset
y leads x by 6 periods
UNRATE tends to move before GDP.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.379 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
0.5%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
42.9%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
311
Robust shared window — 311 usable pairs.
Significance
n.s.
95% CI: [-0.391, 0.263] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
311 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
316
938
Normalized
316
938
Prepared
316
938
Aligned
311
311
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
632
A: 5 / B: 627
Series A
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
FRED · 316 raw → 316 prepared
Series B
UNRATE
Unemployment Rate
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.7485
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-gdp-vs-fred-unrate-daily-20260406-sz4035