Correlation Analysis
Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for United Kingdom vs Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United Kingdom
GBRCPIALLMINMEI vs IRLTLT01GBM156N
-0.674
Strong inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
AI Analysis
The negative correlation between the UK Consumer Price Index (GBRCPIALLMINMEI) and the long-term interest rate in Ireland (IRLTLT01GBM156N) suggests that as inflation increases in the UK, long-term interest rates in Ireland tend to decrease, and vice versa. This relationship holds significant practical implications for investors, as it indicates that inflation expectations in the UK can influence borrowing costs in Ireland, albeit with a notable time lag of six periods. However, it's important to consider that while the correlation is substantial, it does not imply causation and may be influenced by other economic factors not accounted for in this analysis.
Timing Offset
x leads y by 6 periods
GBRCPIALLMINMEI tends to move before IRLTLT01GBM156N.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: -0.899 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
41.6%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
48.6%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
783
Deep shared window — 783 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.803, -0.402] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
783 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
843
794
Normalized
843
794
Prepared
843
794
Aligned
783
783
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
71
A: 60 / B: 11
Series A
GBRCPIALLMINMEI
Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for United Kingdom
FRED · 843 raw → 843 prepared
Series B
IRLTLT01GBM156N
Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United Kingdom
FRED · 794 raw → 794 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0662
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.8400
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-gbrcpiallminmei-vs-fred-irltlt01gbm156n-daily-20260406-w2xmcw