Correlation Analysis
Federal Funds Effective Rate vs 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States
FEDFUNDS vs MORTGAGE30US
+0.911
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between the federal funds rate (FEDFUNDS) and the 30-year mortgage rate (MORTGAGE30US) suggests that changes in the Fed's interest rate policy significantly influence mortgage rates, which is critical for homebuyers and investors. With a majority of periods reflecting similar trends, this relationship indicates that when the Fed raises or lowers rates, mortgage rates tend to follow suit closely, impacting housing affordability and investment decisions. However, while the timing offset is minimal, indicating they move together, it's essential to consider external economic factors that could also influence these rates, as correlations do not imply causation.
Timing Offset
in sync
FEDFUNDS and MORTGAGE30US tend to move at the same time.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.909 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
82.7%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
68.6%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
660
Robust shared window — 660 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.828, 0.953] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
660 paired observations survived the weekly window.
Raw input
861
2,871
Normalized
861
2,871
Prepared
861
2,871
Aligned
660
660
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,412
A: 201 / B: 2211
Series A
FEDFUNDS
Federal Funds Effective Rate
FRED · 861 raw → 861 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States
FRED · 2,871 raw → 2,871 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7760
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.9051
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-fedfunds-vs-fred-mortgage30us-weekly-20260406-9xtabw