Correlation Analysis
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis vs Federal Funds Effective Rate
DGS10 vs FEDFUNDS
+0.899
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between the 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10) and the federal funds rate (FEDFUNDS) suggests that as interest rates set by the Federal Reserve change, so too do long-term borrowing costs, which can impact investment decisions and economic growth. The near-perfect alignment in their movements indicates that investors can rely on these indicators to gauge trends in the economy, but the timing of these changes is crucial, as they often occur simultaneously. However, it's important to note that while this relationship is historically strong, external factors can sometimes disrupt this correlation, so it should not be the sole basis for investment decisions.
Timing Offset
in sync
DGS10 and FEDFUNDS tend to move at the same time.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.912 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
83.1%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
88.2%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
771
Deep shared window — 771 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.833, 0.954] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
771 paired observations survived the weekly window.
Raw input
16,047
861
Normalized
16,047
861
Prepared
3,353
861
Aligned
771
771
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,672
A: 2582 / B: 90
Series A
DGS10
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis
FRED · 16,047 raw → 3,353 prepared
Series B
FEDFUNDS
Federal Funds Effective Rate
FRED · 861 raw → 861 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0950
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.6052
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-dgs10-vs-fred-fedfunds-weekly-20260406-f96i8v