Correlation Analysis
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis vs Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis
DGS10 vs DGS2
+0.972
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields indicates that movements in long-term interest rates closely follow changes in short-term rates, suggesting a consistent relationship in investor sentiment about future economic conditions. This alignment, with both series moving in the same direction most of the time, is practical for investors as it can signal trends in the bond market and broader economic outlook. However, while the close synchronization implies that timing offsets are minimal, it's essential to remember that correlation does not imply causation; external factors can still influence these rates independently.
Timing Offset
in sync
DGS10 and DGS2 tend to move at the same time.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.976 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
95.3%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
85.7%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
12,455
Deep shared window — 12,455 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.953, 0.988] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
12,455 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
16,047
12,455
Normalized
16,047
12,455
Prepared
16,047
12,455
Aligned
12,455
12,455
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,592
A: 3592 / B: 0
Series A
DGS10
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis
FRED · 16,047 raw → 16,047 prepared
Series B
DGS2
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis
FRED · 12,455 raw → 12,455 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0954
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.3441
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-dgs10-vs-fred-dgs2-daily-20260406-kt4bdg