Durable Goods Orders vs Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small Company ETF

The correlation between DGORDER, which reflects order volumes in the economy, and the Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small Company ETF suggests a moderate relationship, indicating that increases in order volumes are often associated with rising small-cap stock prices. Notably, DGORDER tends to lead changes in the ETF by about 14 months, implying that shifts in economic activity may precede movements in small company stocks. However, while there is a statistically significant relationship, the relatively low R-squared indicates that other factors also play a significant role in influencing small-cap performance, so this correlation should be considered as one piece of a larger investment strategy.

Durable Goods Orders tends to move before FNDA.

After testing 37 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.717 (they moved in the same direction).

How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.

How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.