Correlation Analysis
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma vs Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average
DCOILWTICO vs CPIAUCSL
+0.733
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between crude oil prices (DCOILWTICO) and the Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL) suggests that movements in oil prices significantly influence inflation trends in the economy, with oil prices often leading by a week. This relationship can be practically significant for investors and policymakers, as rising oil prices may signal forthcoming inflationary pressures. However, while the correlation is noteworthy, it's important to consider other factors that can affect inflation, as reliance solely on this relationship may overlook broader economic dynamics.
Timing Offset
x leads y by 1 period
DCOILWTICO tends to move before CPIAUCSL.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.719 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
50.8%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
57.1%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
481
Robust shared window — 481 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.502, 0.844] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
481 paired observations survived the weekly window.
Raw input
10,129
949
Normalized
10,129
949
Prepared
2,101
949
Aligned
481
481
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,088
A: 1620 / B: 468
Series A
DCOILWTICO
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma
FRED · 10,129 raw → 2,101 prepared
Series B
CPIAUCSL
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average
FRED · 949 raw → 949 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.4112
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
132.7740
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-dcoilwtico-vs-fred-cpiaucsl-weekly-20260406-jx6j47