Correlation Analysis
Consumer Price Index: All Items: City: Total for Canada vs Interest Rates: Immediate Rates (< 24 Hours): Central Bank Rates: Total for Canada
CPALCY01CAM661N vs IRSTCB01CAM156N
-0.509
Moderate inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
AI Analysis
The negative correlation between Series A (consumer price index for Canada) and Series B (interest rates in Canada) suggests that as prices rise, interest rates tend to fall, indicating a potential inverse relationship between inflation and monetary policy. The fact that price changes lead interest rate adjustments by about six periods implies that investors should anticipate shifts in interest rates based on inflation trends. However, while the correlation is statistically significant, it only explains a quarter of the variation, so other factors may also play a crucial role in shaping these economic dynamics.
Timing Offset
x leads y by 6 periods
CPALCY01CAM661N tends to move before IRSTCB01CAM156N.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: -0.827 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
26.6%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
58.1%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
755
Deep shared window — 755 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.01
95% CI: [-0.722, -0.225] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
755 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
755
768
Normalized
755
768
Prepared
755
768
Aligned
755
755
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13
A: 0 / B: 13
Series A
CPALCY01CAM661N
Consumer Price Index: All Items: City: Total for Canada
FRED · 755 raw → 755 prepared
Series B
IRSTCB01CAM156N
Interest Rates: Immediate Rates (< 24 Hours): Central Bank Rates: Total for Canada
FRED · 768 raw → 768 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0572
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.1629
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-cpalcy01cam661n-vs-fred-irstcb01cam156n-daily-20260406-r04xzi