Correlation Analysis
Real Gross Domestic Product for United Kingdom (DISCONTINUED) vs International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for United Kingdom
CLVMNACSCAB1GQUK vs XTEXVA01GBM667S
+0.968
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between Series A and Series B suggests that they move closely together, implying that trends in one are likely to reflect trends in the other, which can be useful for economic forecasting and investment decisions. Notably, Series B tends to lead Series A by one period, indicating that changes in Series B may signal future movements in Series A, allowing investors to anticipate shifts. However, while this relationship is robust, it is essential to consider that correlation does not imply causation, and other external factors could influence these series, potentially affecting their future alignment.
Timing Offset
y leads x by 1 period
XTEXVA01GBM667S tends to move before CLVMNACSCAB1GQUK.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.966 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
92.6%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
62.9%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
183
Usable shared window — 183 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.926, 0.981] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
183 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
183
828
Normalized
183
828
Prepared
183
828
Aligned
183
183
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
645
A: 0 / B: 645
Series A
CLVMNACSCAB1GQUK
Real Gross Domestic Product for United Kingdom (DISCONTINUED)
FRED · 183 raw → 183 prepared
Series B
XTEXVA01GBM667S
International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for United Kingdom
FRED · 828 raw → 828 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
126488.7986
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-18525324808.9245
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-clvmnacscab1gquk-vs-fred-xtexva01gbm667s-daily-20260406-vfaxni