Correlation Analysis
Real Gross Domestic Product for United Kingdom (DISCONTINUED) vs Gross Domestic Product
CLVMNACSCAB1GQUK vs GDP
+0.983
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between Series A and GDP suggests that movements in Series A are closely related to changes in economic output, indicating that Series A could serve as a reliable leading indicator for GDP trends. The fact that Series A leads GDP by one period implies that shifts in Series A may signal upcoming changes in economic performance, allowing investors to make more informed decisions. However, while the correlation is robust, it's important to remember that correlation does not imply causation, and external factors could influence both data series independently.
Timing Offset
x leads y by 1 period
CLVMNACSCAB1GQUK tends to move before GDP.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.989 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
96.4%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
85.7%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
183
Usable shared window — 183 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.964, 0.991] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
183 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
183
316
Normalized
183
316
Prepared
183
316
Aligned
183
183
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
133
A: 0 / B: 133
Series A
CLVMNACSCAB1GQUK
Real Gross Domestic Product for United Kingdom (DISCONTINUED)
FRED · 183 raw → 183 prepared
Series B
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
FRED · 316 raw → 316 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0638
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-10425.1429
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-clvmnacscab1gquk-vs-fred-gdp-daily-20260406-n4k258